历史的弧线:奥巴马外交政策评说(11)

来源:互联网新闻 时间:2020-05-02 09:27

奥巴马主义?

除了上述对总统各项工作的逐条评价之外,还有一个更宽泛的问题:是否有奥巴马主义存在?如果有,它能帮助美国在21世纪应对各种国际事务的挑战吗?排列各项事务的优先级并拟定计划来实现目标,对作为首席战略家的美国总统来说,这是义不容辞的任务。只有借助于一个战略计划,总统才可以阐述自己的治国方向以及在自己任期内他将对全世界造成什么样的影响,而非他对全世界发展方向的长期展望。

迄今为止,奥巴马的外交政策包括了对战争的果决态度(其中包括结束整个中东地区的战争),与中国和谐但有前瞻性的关系,与其他几个崛起中大国的关系取得适度进展,与俄罗斯关系实现可以实际预见到的良好“重置”,在军控和核不扩散方面审慎但未完成的努力。虽然奥巴马的外交政策没有取得突破性的进展,但至少加紧了对伊朗和朝鲜的制裁;对于2011年阿拉伯觉醒运动的回应大致来说都是非常谨慎的,除了偶尔会有不一致的情况发生以外;迄今为止中东和平进程仍然令人失望;能源与气候记录劣迹斑斑;对付弱国或动乱国家(包括墨西哥)的表现相当平庸。最终,奥巴马避免了美国和全球经济走向崩溃,但他没能带领美国或世界走上经济持续复苏的道路。考虑到这个时代的巨大挑战和任务的困难重重,奥巴马的外交政策记录是明智的、审慎的,但不是富有开创性的。美国的国家利益得到了很好的维护,但在美国带领下形成世界新秩序的承诺还远未达成。

从整体来看,这个记录是如何衔接的?对于奥巴马的宏伟战略,有人提出了几种提案。这些提案都非常有趣,但我们认为,没有一种是触及关键的。一位学者把奥巴马政府描绘成一个专注于反击的政府,但反击至多只能称得上是一种手段,而非战略。另一位著名的作家,建议我们放弃探求奥巴马主义,因为现在的世界已经变得过于复杂,对任何一位总统而言,如果做大多数决策的时候都能依赖于一个简单、清晰和一致的指导方针,那已经算是一种奢望了。第三个观点,是最近由一位匿名的白宫高级顾问提出的,认为奥巴马政府一直在尝试“幕后领导”——至少在对利比亚的干预、突尼斯和埃及革命等事务上采用的都是这种方式。尽管这种方式可能对于次等重要的问题或在美国影响力有限的情况下会奏效,但对处于美国领导力范围之外的国家而言,这种方式几乎完全不可行。同时,在国内这是一种糟糕的政治方式,在国际上会造成灾难性的国家形象。(高菲 译)

AN OBAMA DOCTRINE?

Beyond this point-by-point assessment of the president’s record, there is a broader question: is there an Obama doctrine, and if so, does it meet the requirements of an American approach to the challenges of the twenty-first century in international affairs? It is incumbent on the president as strategist-in-chief to establish priorities as well as plans for pursuing those objectives. And only with a strategy can the president explain where he is actively trying to take the country and world on his watch—rather than where he is hoping the world will someday wind up in the longer term.

So far Obama’s foreign policy includes a resolute approach to wars, including ending them in the greater Middle East, a balanced yet forward-looking relationship with China, modest headway with several of the world’s other rising powers, about as good a “reset” as could realistically be expected with Russia, and serious but incomplete efforts on the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation front. It features no breakthroughs but at least stronger sanctions in regard to Iran and North Korea, generally prudent if sometimes inconsistent responses to the 2011 Arab awakenings, a very disappointing experience to date on Middle East peacemaking, a spotty record on energy and climate, and a fairly undistinguished record on dealing with weak or troubled states, including Mexico. Finally, Obama has avoided national and global economic collapse but without yet moving either the country or the world onto the path to sustained economic recovery. Given the degree of difficulty associated with this era’s monumental challenges and tasks, Obama’s foreign policy record is thus sensible and serious but not pathbreaking. The nation’s interests have been well protected, but the promise of a new world order shaped by American leadership is far from being achieved.

How does the record cohere when viewed as a whole? Several proposals have been offered about an Obama grand strategy, all of them interesting but none that we think hits its mark. One scholar depicts an administration focused on counterpunching, but counterpunching at best is a tactic and not a strategy. Another prominent writer suggests we abandon the search for an Obama doctrine because the world has become too complicated for any president to have the luxury of such a simple, clear, and consistent guide to most decisionmaking. A third notion, suggested recently by an anonymous senior White House adviser, is that this administration has been trying to “lead from behind”—at least on matters such as the Libya intervention and the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions. But while this approach may work for second-order issues or in cases where American influence is inherently limited, it is hardly a viable way for a country that remains far and away the world’s most powerful actor to play its global leadership role. It is also poor domestic politics and disastrous branding.

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